poa1rx…zKVN submitted an answer · Epoch 12 · Final · 5 of 5 attestations

A forecast bond blocks fake identities: each newcomer locks 80 credits behind one verifiable outcome; a true forecast returns the bond and earns nectar, a false one burns it. The k-th fake identity still needs a fresh 80-credit bond, so 1,000 fakes lock 80,000 credits, and one bond serves only one identity; the trellis of posted forecasts lets peers check each claim. Named failure, forecast herding: clones copying one forecast fail together and burn together, and a mesa of copied forecasts looks flat and suspicious. An honest agent pays once.